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【中气爱】三重拉尼娜已经发生,它会导致冬季极寒吗?——经典论文推荐

中气爱 中气爱科技新知 2023-01-06

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一、ENSO理论发展

图1. Bjerknes提出Walker环流,来自Bjerknes, J. (1969)

[1] Walker, G. T. (1923). Correlation in seasonal variation of weather. VIII: A preliminary study of world weather.Memoirs of India Meteorological Department24, 75-131.

[2] Walker, G. T. (1924). Correlations in seasonal variations of weather. I. A further study of world weather.Mem. Indian Meteorol. Dep.24, 275-332.

[3] Bjerknes, J. (1969). Atmospheric teleconnections from the equatorial Pacific.Monthly weather review97(3), 163-172.

[4] Wyrtki, K. (1975). El Niño—the dynamic response of the equatorial Pacific Oceanto atmospheric forcing.Journal of Physical Oceanography5(4), 572-584.

[5] Rasmusson, E. M., & Carpenter, T. H. (1982). Variations in tropical sea surface temperature and surface wind fields associated with the Southern Oscillation/El Niño.Monthly Weather Review110(5), 354-384.

[6] Philander, S. (1983). El Niño Southern Oscillation phenomena.Nature, 302, 295–301.

[7] Trenberth, K. E. (1997). The Definition of El Niño,Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 78(12), 2771-2778. 

[8] Trenberth, K. E., & Stepaniak, D. P. (2001). Indices of El Niño Evolution,Journal of Climate, 14(8), 1697-1701.


二、近年来ENSO与东亚气候的部分进展

图2. 印度-西太平洋暖池气候变率主模态的季节性,来自Xie et al., 2009
[9] Zhang, R., Sumi, A., & Kimoto, M. (1996). Impact of El Niño on the East Asian monsoon A diagnostic study of the'86/87 and'91/92 events.Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. Ser. II74(1), 49-62.
[10] Wang, C., & Weisberg, R. H. (2000). The 1997–98 El Niño Evolution Relative to Previous El Niño Events,Journal of Climate, 13(2), 488-501.
[11] Wang, B., Wu, R., & Fu, X. (2000). Pacific–East Asian Teleconnection: How Does ENSO Affect East Asian Climate?,Journal of Climate, 13(9), 1517-1536.
[12] Ashok, K., Behera, S. K., Rao, S. A., Weng, H., & Yamagata, T. (2007). El Niño Modoki and its possible teleconnection.Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans112(C11).
[13] Zhou, W., Wang, X., Zhou, T. J., Li, C., & Chan, J. C. L. (2007). Interdecadal variability of the relationship between the East Asian winter monsoon and ENSO.Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 98(3), 283-293.
[14] Xie, S., Hu, K., Hafner, J., Tokinaga, H., Du, Y., Huang, G., & Sampe, T. (2009). Indian Ocean Capacitor Effect on Indo–Western Pacific Climate during the Summer following El Niño,Journal of Climate, 22(3), 730-747. 
[15] Nie, Y., Ren, H., Zhang, Y., & Zhang, P. (2022). Roles of Atmospheric Variability and Arctic Sea Ice in the Asymmetric Arctic–Eurasia Temperature Connection on Subseasonal Time Scale,Journal of Climate, 35(23), 3975-3994.


三、ENSO多样性与多年ENSO事件

图3. 厄尔尼诺开始时间和前一次暖事件的强度通过大气和海洋过程影响ENSO事件持续时间的示意图,来自Wu et al., 2019

[16] Kao, H., & Yu, J. (2009). Contrasting Eastern-Pacific and Central-Pacific Types of ENSO,Journal of Climate, 22(3), 615-632.
[17] Hu, Z. Z., Kumar, A., Xue, Y., & Jha, B. (2014). Why were some La Niñas followed by another La Niña?.Climate Dynamics42(3), 1029-1042.
[18] Wu, X., Okumura, Y. M., & DiNezio, P. N. (2019). What controls the duration of El Niño and La Niña events?.Journal of Climate32(18), 5941-5965.
[19] Ham, Y. G., Kim, J. H., & Luo, J. J. (2019). Deep learning for multi-year ENSO forecasts.Nature573(7775), 568-572.
[20] Ding, R., Tseng, Y. H., Di Lorenzo, E., Shi, L., Li, J., Yu, J. Y., ... & Li, F. (2022). Multi-year El Niño events tied to the North Pacific Oscillation.Nature communications13(1), 1-11.
[21] Fang, X., Zheng, F., Li, K., Hu, Z. Z., Ren, H., Wu, J., ... & Zhu, J. (2022). Will the historic southeasterly wind over the equatorial pacific in March 2022 trigger a third-year La Niña Event?. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences.
[22] Zheng, F., B. Wu, L. Wang, J.-B. Peng, Y. Yao, H.-F. Zong, Q. Bao, J.-H. Ma, S. Hu, H.-L. Ren, T.-W. Cao, R.-P. Lin, X.-H. Fang, L.-J. Tao, T.-J. Zhou, and J. Zhu, 2023: Can Eurasia experience a cold winter under a third-year La Niña in 2022/23?Advances in Atmospheric Sciences.


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